(Note: this post has been corrected on some details about the SD Freedom Fund. We value truth around here.)There's been talk on Mount Blogmore (the scrappy Rapid City Journal political blog) about what the results of the June 6 primary election mean for November.
Bill Harlan said on the Mount that all incumbent Repubs who voted against HB1215 with a challenger lost, but the results were split for Democrats. Rep. Julie Bartling (D) (the Dem co-sponsor of 1215) prevailed in her primary, running against two other Dems whose combined votes would have solidly defeated her. (!)
Enquiring minds query the tea leaves: will anyone else lose elected office because of the bravery / cowardice / arrogance / ignorance / passon of their actions in the Lege session? Some "conservatives" sound overjoyed, interpreting one race in particular, the Schwiesow/Adelstein State Senate Republican primary in District 32, as a strong grass-roots endorsement of HB1215.
It seems to me that the District 32 story wasn't so much a resounding "values" victory, but more the result of Schwiesow staying on her (one) message, and fiercely mobilizing her local base through lots of hard work and volunteer phone calls.
Or not. Schwiesow did get a
little last-minute help from
out-of-district friends Bob and Rita Fischer, and more of her East River and Westside friends (aka the "SD Freedom Fund") who quickly came up with the $11K needed when Fischer's flagrant breaking of the political contribution rules was exposed by the Adelstein campaign.
(Here's who stepped in to fill the gap.) Although Schwiesow clearly has some grass-roots support in her District, let's please knock it off on the home-town political David and Goliath/Underdog/Cinderella story. But I digress.)
Since three of these closely-followed Repub State Senate primaries were right here in town, I thought it would be fun to do a very rough likely-voter analysis, on the assumption that as many people will vote in the 11/06 State Senate races as voted in 11/04 (who knows, this a WEIRD year). So I took
the number of people that voted in 11/04 in these races and subtracted out the
Repub primary voters from June 6, and this is what I got (data from the Pennington County Auditor):


What will happen? Assuming the fire-engine red, 'true-believer' Repubs stick by their candidates, what will the moderates (rose color) do? Vote the party line? Sit on their hands? Vote for (or work for) one of the excellent Dem candidates in their District? And what about the non-true believers, those that aren't active in party politics, do not vote in primaries, and are at best ambivalent toward politics? And what about
unlikely voters, that didn't vote in '04? There's a lot in play here.
All I know is 1) a lot is at stake 2) there are real opportunities for Dems with a good organization and a compelling message and image.